Population Mortality Improvement Trends and Models in China
Background and Purpose
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) desires to develop additional research work that serves the interest of the actuarial profession, public and the stakeholders on current and emerging actuarial topics in China. The SOA is issuing this Research Call for Proposals to encourage new research on recent trends in population mortality and mortality improvement in China, and expanding tools and models that can be used by the local market actuarial profession for modeling and forecasting future mortality improvement. At a minimum, mortality and improvement trends would be identified on an annual basis by age and sex, with other concepts such as socioeconomic factors, geography, and/or causes of death being incorporated as available. Tools and models would be created to assist local market actuaries in their work and be comparable to other tools and models developed in the United Kingdom, United States and Canada.
Research Objective
To broaden and expand the knowledge in China market topics, the SOA is seeking researchers to submit proposals.
The SOA desires to create a population mortality and improvement study to give actuaries working in the market a tool and models to consider in their work for projecting future mortality improvement. Working with US based committees, the SOA has prompted development of the RPEC mortality improvement model (“RPEC_2014_v2020”) with its most current version located as part of the MP-2020 scale release at https://www.soa.org/resources/experience-studies/2020/mortality-improvement-scale-mp-2020/ In addition, during 2021 the SOA has greatly expanded its tools available to study the US population by releasing a variety of mortality projects based on socioeconomic factors. A current mortality improvement model, with an ability to broaden out to socioeconomic categories was also released entitled “MIM-2021” and can be found at https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2021/mortality-improvement-model/ The SOA would like to work with local market researchers and actuaries to study similar historical trends in China, and develop research, tools and models that further assist in future modeling of mortality improvement in china. Given the unique factors that might differentiate China mortality patterns from other markets, the research and tool development survey need not necessarily follow the same formal path of previous mortality models, but should allow for reasonable comparisons and also further increase awareness to local China market readers about the mortality trends that are specific to the market.
Key considerations in the proposal review process by the SOA are the demonstration that the expected work will not be duplicative of existing material, will represent a significant expansion in the current knowledge on the topic, and will be of considerably strong impact and benefit to the SOA and its members and stakeholders. The resulting research report, tools, models and its findings are expected to be part of future professional development events put on by the SOA in China.
Given the desire to advance knowledge on current subjects and provide timely results, preference will be given to projects that can be completed for publishing and used for continuing education in under 6 – 9 months.
The SOA also encourages partnerships between academia and industry where the resulting work can be of mutual interest and enhance the breadth of the research work.
Proposal
To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:
- Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
- An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis.
- A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources.
- Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
- A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The SOA is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
- Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.
Selection Process
The SOA will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The SOA is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the SOA will make the final recommendation, subject to SOA leadership approval. The SOA will provide staff actuarial support and assist in project management.
Questions
Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Dale Hall, SOA Managing Director of Research (phone: +1 847-273-8835; email: dhall@soa.org.
Notification of Intent to Submit Proposal
If you intend to submit a proposal, please e-mail written notification by July 23, 2021 to Erika Schulty at eschulty@soa.org.
Submission of Proposal
Please e-mail a copy of the proposal to Erika Schulty at eschulty@soa.org.
Proposals must be received no later than August 6, 2021. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end August 2021.
Note: Proposals are considered confidential and proprietary.
Conditions
The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries and the researcher.
The SOA reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The SOA also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.
The SOA plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).
The SOA may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the SOA in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.
The SOA may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the SOA, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.